MARKET THREAD 🧵👇
1) Current BTC
2) Option 1: bounce (2020 pandemic reversal)
3) Option 2: nuke continues (2018 example)
Reversal after pandemic nuke had BTC halving coming up (May) + money printers
We do NOT have those right now for fuel
12k-14k still possible
2/n BTC THEN vs NOW
Comparing 2018 % moves and applying to current PA
Local bottom 15,588 -13.5% = 13,483
Bounce to range high first (17,600-18,200 / close & wick) and then dump 15-29% for final bottom
Would put us between 12.5k-14.5k
3/n We're below previous 17,622 bottom, with no catalysts to get us out of the hole just yet
No: - BTC halving - money printers - new money coming in
More bad catalysts: - exchange bankruptcies - more insolvencies - more hacks - more talk of regulation - CBDC test releases
"It never looks bullish at the bottom" - agreed
I think it gets worse before it gets better tho. Look at 2018 final capitulation for example. Got worse before it got better. And then went sideways a bit. Also didn't have catalysts for a V reversal. Spent months sideways.
Think we see some more news unfold and bright to light throughout the industry. More bad news and insolvencies and fear. Ripple effects from LUNA & FTX (& more) still all yet to be made public. Once those are washed out, I will feel more comfortable buying again.
Bad news & catalysts that stir volatility will be exposed and priced in.
This is when risk is lowered and confidence again to buy the bottom range 12k-18k (2018 equivalent of 3k-6k bottom range)
Everything currently is a LTF trade
Over the next weeks/months, will be interested for buying HTF long term spot bags again
Some of interest (depending on price and new information to arise between now and then) BTC ETH MATIC BNB LTC DOGE
Being patient & survive frens
2018-19 taught us fear, pain & boredom, but after it's all done, the pumps return. Be here for it 🤝This post is based on this twitter thread.