1) Everyone is asking the wrong question:
Where is the Bitcoin BTC bottom target?
This is irrelevant.
You don't need to predict the bottom to buy the bottom. You just need to predict the stock market capitulation to catch the bottom.
2) Every single stock market capitulation for the last 60 years (with the exception of the dot-com bubble) occurred during a recession.
3) Also, every single unemployment peak was after the recession ended and the stock market capitulated.
4) But wait, you say, what if the FED pivots, surely that will bring the boom boom pump.
The fact is, the FED has ALWAYS pivoted BEFORE a recession and they are 0 for 8 on preventing a capitulation. You heard that right, we have never experienced a soft landing.
5) Logically, one would think that the FED pivots either when a) the unemployment rate skyrockets or b) inflation looks to be getting back under control. But there is no correlation between these.
6) However, there is a loose correlation between a FED pivot and a stock market dump. According to this, the FED should have pivoted already, what gives? 👇
7) The FED has been pumping the masses into debt with near-zero rates for decades. They have no more room to drop. Negative rates would destroy the USA dream. They have no other option but to raise rates through the upcoming dump & ensuing capitulation.
8) With the effects of money printing, Covid, War, China meltdown, soon to make the news mass layoffs, up only stock market for 13 years in a row, housing prices dumping... and we haven't technically hit recession yet.
A generational buying opportunity is near, so when?👇
9) 1. Stock market hot 2. FED pivot 3. Stock market dumps 4. Unemployment rises 5. Recession starts 6. Stock market capitulates ( BTC bottoms) 7. Recession ends 8. Unemployment peaks
This is the normal order, we skipped 2, will hit 4 on Dec 2, will hit 5 on Jan 3 So when 6.? 👇
10) Let's compare with the 2008 crash. Soaring unemployment after a 24% dip in a recession exacerbated the stock market dump to capitulate for 3 months. We are at -27% with jobs data out on Dec 2 & official recession starting on Jan 3. I would give it 3 months from there. 3/23
11) So if you are looking to buy the bottom, wait for the capitulation to start in January and by March there should be generational buying opportunities.
Sorry for the long post, here is a cute animal to make you feel better.
This post is based on this twitter thread.