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Bitcoin Price Psychology Wins (15/15) Primary Macro Analysis

BTC Complete Primary Macro Analysis 2011-Present

(1/15) Bullish Perspective

Let's take a look at some of the two extreme cases for Bitcoin's future. One is bullish, one is bearish, both confluences are equal probabilities. The bullish has the outstanding probability, though.

(2/15) Bearish Perspective

If we mix in the psychology of the markets, there is also a very good chance that a deeper correction may be in store for us. The NVT from 2014-2017 was gray for cycle waves 1-2. Will super cycle waves 1-2 also stay in the gray for the next 3-4 years?

(3/15) It's impossible to say which will play out; however, the order of operation for me is based on Bitcoin's roots: STORE OF VALUE. If we continue to remain optimistic like we did during the ICO phase, China FUD, FTX, and etc. of black swan events, BTC has and will survive.

(4/15) The first scenario is more probable to me as its combining many of the scenarios of the medium timeframes, which helps make the first macro scenario (bullish) slightly more probable. Bitcoin has also historically been 'SIDEWAYS' on the macro, with 'U' shape recoveries.

(5/15) By working within the curve values with the bullish scenario, there is no extreme value of our 5th wave. It works continuously, fractal by fractal, and will elongate the curve.

(6/15) By saying we are in a completely new super cycle wave, it's not improbable by any means; however, both log and linear scale shows that Bitcoin would need to rebound far more stronger than it did in any of the years in the previous decade, making it hard to believe as well.

(7/15) Now, what if the 'curve' line breaks? Sure, possible. Well, people often forget that the curve has broken back many times, notably in 2015-2019. You can really, adjust the curve any way you would like to, but it always rebounded back, making it possible to readjust, again.

(8/15) So, if scenario 2 shows that super cycle wave 2 is in play, the curve adjusted, would transform it to be irregular. You would have to believe we are in a completely new phase w/ evidence (none so far). It breaks all fundamental algorithmic fractals for the curve analysis.

(9/15) Elliott Wave Theory is best when used on a medium timeframe analysis that helps build the larger primary macro analysis. Anything extreme of a lower timeframe, and or super high timeframe, can sway bias too much. The main strength of the EWT is also its weakness - choices.

(10/15) One of my favorite ways to interpret the charts is using the NVT indicator, which shows the overall buy and sell zones. Historically, Bitcoin has always been a great buy when in the gray zone. How long it stays in the gray zone, however, is up for interpretation.

(11/15) Remember, geometry and overall fib levels are extremely important for Elliott Waves, however, it's not everything. There are a million instances where Bitcoin has shattered a "good look", but has kept the overall fundamental value look in terms of price being supported.

(12/15) Now, how would one readjust the curve to support the bullish analysis? Instead of adjusting the bottom curve, adjusting the top curve still gives a better overall geometrical shape if we continue the fractal cycle, allowing a deeper wave 2 in the future to stay inside.

(13/15) The main thing people don't understand is that we truly never know how a super cycle wave 2 starts, or ends, and is actually not proven by Ralph Elliott, himself - and is especially seen in the Equities Market, more notably the S&P500, even from the 1920's.

(14/15) Even with fibs, we will never know the mathematical end point of Bitcoin's future, because fibs can be extended forever due to the square root functions, which also makes the bullish stance also irregular and can be argued against it. Market psychology wins in the end.

(15/15) What's important is, we will always have alternatives during times of downtrend/price discovery phases, it's crucial to just follow the trend until it breaks. Playing in the medium is far more valuable than predicting extreme scenarios. Good luck!

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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