Crypto Trades Fleh
Crypto Trades Fleh 7 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Outlook: $BTC Breakout Underway

BTC breakout is IMMINENT and it could go either way….

Only thing is the direction is tough to call as there is merit for both bullish and bearish case scenarios

Let’s break them down below 👇🏼 🧵 (1/11)

Bullish scenario:

- Large liquidity pool between 18.2k - 20.6k which could be recovered before further downside

- Money flow on BTC ETH is ticking up slowly since the crash, usually a sign of a breakout

- BTC and crypto as a whole is at historic support levels right now

Bearish scenario: (1/2)

- Gigantic liquidity pool waiting to be taken between 16k - 11.8k ….

- If this dump initiates institutional investors + miners will begin to capitulate and there’s no telling where it stops

- DXY has reached our MTF support level of 106.4 and seems to want to bounce up in the mid term

- This will further dump risk on markets like BTC SPX NASDAQ etc…

- However I still think the upwards trend for the dollar is over for now (this is actually good for BTC)

Further to DXY bouncing off medium term support levels, SPX is inversely facing the strong resistance we expected at the 4000 level

If SPX breaks up from here somehow 4140 is the level to watch as we approach the long term down trending resistance line of the HTF downward channel the stock market has been in since December 2021

This also coincides with the current liquidity pool SPX is recovering

Macro environment: (1/2)

- People are still wildly delusional in calling for a FED pivot which simply just won’t happen

- We know this will ONLY happen when inflation comes down SIGNIFICANTLY because the HEAD OF THE FED, JEROME POWELL KEEPS TELLING US THIS 🫠

Macro environment: (2/2)

- This should be the easy part to understand but some have only ever known upward markets + positive monetary policy from central banks (delusional)

- Housing market bubbles globally are still yet to pop 🎈 📌

- War in Europe continues to rage on

Micro environment: (1/2)

- Short term time frames show BTC in a pennant waiting to breakout in either direction

- Upside actually has a chance here in the short term although I can see it rejecting sub 20k to either retest 16k region for a double bottom or continue lower

Micro environment: (2/2)

- FTX, Alameda, 3AC and others will not be the only adderall pumping dumbasses to make a fool of themselves in crypto

- More over-leveraged swine will eventually get found out and capitulate also, now is still not a safe time to trust these exchanges

Final thoughts: (1/3)

- Historic data looking at previous bear markets (see photo) suggests we have a while to go yet before it’s over…

- If you’re buying at these levels, long term one would imagine it’s probably a lucrative decision however…

Final thoughts: (2/3)

- Percentage wise we can still drop significantly, I’m scaling in very very slowly

- Be responsible in dangerous times like this

- Protect your capital at all costs, now is not the time to be aggressive, nothing is a sure bet

Final thoughts: (3/3)

- Regulation is coming, this will be a good thing in the long run

- Survive until the next bull run and print millions as a reward

- Don’t listen to people on the internet on how to manage your finances 🧠

I hope this was helpful

I tried a new style of thread mixing macro-talk in with technical analysis, so let me know if I should do more of this style for our regular market updates

These threads take a lot of effort, I’d appreciate a like ❤️


This post is based on this twitter thread.


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