Phoenix
Phoenix 8 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Price Analysis: The Current State of the Market &amp Mania

Current state of the market & CT is like a storm that won't lay down

Bad news, rumours, etc. It all leverages the already existing fear

So, let's chill and simply look at some facts

A little BTC thread🧵 1/18

2011 Top - Bottom: -93% 2013 Top - Bottom: -86% 2017 Top - Bottom: -84% 2021 Top - current (Local) Bottom: -77%

A replica drawdown of 84% would take us to 11K That's a -33% move from the current prices

BTC

2/

A 93% drawdown would take us to 4K

We are not going to talk about the likelyhood here, we're gonna stay with the facts

3/

Durations

Days between the Market Cycle Top vs the Bottom

'11 Bear: 161 Days '13/'14 Bear: 413 Days '17/'18 Bear: 364 Days

'21/'22 Bear to current Unconfirmed Bottom: 364 Days

Measured from the April top (many refer to this being the real Market Cycle top): 574 Days

4/

Mainly due to the FTX debacle, a record high amount of BTC has been taken off the (centralized) exchanges

The exchange net position change hit a new peak when it comes to withdrawals last Wednesday

5/

There was also a solid spike when you look at the Exchanges inflow

Was it because of panic selling due to FTX? Maybe, but we're not going to do assumptions here

6/

Corresponding to the record high outflow:

Close to a record amount of withdrawals, right at the current (local) bottom

Peak withdrawals, peak panic, which totally makes sense

7/

Let's now check if there is accumulative behaviour at these -77% prices

A serious uptick in the amount of Adressess with a BTC balance >0.01

8/

BTC Adressess with a balance >0.1

Same story

9/

And Adressess with a BTC balance >1? The same

So one could say that there is still a good bunch of retail investors who seriously bought the dip

10/

The amount of bigger addresses (>10 BTC) has been rising since the start of the year, after a distributive 'pattern' which occured after Bitcoin crossed the former ATH in 2020

You could say that this is 'smart money' DCA'ing during the decline

11/

Amount of massive whales however hasn't really increased nor decreased

12/

Giants (>100 BTC) also kinda flat ever since May 2021

13/

Filthy rich wallets (consists of exchange reserves too) growing ever since the top last year

14/

Note that all of the above wallet changes can be due to the fact that people withdraw BTC into their main wallets, due to the FTX situation, but this is only an assumption

So, it could be bullish, could be bearish? Hmm yessir kek

15/

You may know I thought we'd be bottoming out in the ~17-25K zone

I was wrong on that

I'm not gonna blame the FTX drama for it, I guess assumptions of bigger CT accs (like myself), whether bullish or bearish makes no sense rn

Taking care of a harmed community is priority N1 16/

To conclude

Notable changes (increases) in amount of wallets hodling BTC

Peak record high exchange withdrawals, but also a notable increase of Bitcoin deposits on exchanges

17/

Bearmarket drawdowns: -94%, -86%, -84, -77% (current)

Rising floors? Or is the worst yet to come?

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ Hard to say at this point, but I tried to stay with facts only, and I hope I did

If you liked this, please consider Retweeting the first tweet, thnx🙂

18/18

This post is based on this twitter thread.

Comments

Please login to comment.