BTC is most likely about to take a bigger hit than most of the industry is ready for and here's why... Bitcoin BTC 🧵👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
1.) The most important note here is the price structure which I call a price character. This character within the life of Bitcoin price revolves around is this red channel and the Elliot impulse pattern.
2.) Therefore, I count my cycles which matter most with the current character of the BTC life cycle. Most people who have been in this space the longest describe the last bull run exactly as a text book Elliot impulse wave 5. It was euphoric and cut off early.
3.) This price channel is the most weighted data on the chart backed by history and transactions and that's why it matters and why I don't count the first run as a significant part of this trend.
4.) The most recent data is more important with todays holders and perspective rather than 2011 when your friend told you about Bitcoin as the new internet money for the first time because those buyers in 2009-2011 most likely made a lot of money or are still in profit today.
5.) Price stability revolves around todays times. Which todays global economy is broken with ugly times ahead. Price will find the stops of the holders with weak hands within the most recent and adjacent price structure.
6.) Asset prices are on the way down and unemployment on the rise. A lot of people who don't have a stable balance sheet or recession proof job which hold Bitcoin wont be able to afford to keep holding. They will jump ship for safety in a heart beat as its all sinking.
7.) With Tether on the line of going bust, along with how USDT is intertwined into this messy crypto space. Big accounts at mercy of margin calls. Its not impossible to see prices below 10k at this point. Which will it be? a total 90% drop, a 95% or a 98%?
8.) a 90% drop is normal for crypto and normal for an inflated price structure. Along with a global depression among us. So why would BTC be treated any different than any other asset or price structure?
10.) Just because your favorite influencer says BTC is hard money doesn't save it from a 98% drop in total. Step back, zoom out, take the shape of the global economy into consideration. So stay safe and prepare for the worst case is my point with this thread.
11.) To conclude here, I sound like I hate BTC and that my TA is not proven. That is not the case entirely. These are just probabilities based on what I've gathered in my 7 years of charts, and 2 years of observing BTC nearly everyday through people and price action.This post is based on this twitter thread.