Bull From The Sea
Bull From The Sea 2 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Chart Charts: On Average at Long Term Holders

Quick thread with a few on-chain charts on where I think we are in the BTC cycle if anyone is interested. I’ve not posted for a long time.

I’ll start with unrealized PnL. Last week Short Term Holders MVRV crossed over that of Long Term Holders for the first time in this cycle.

The thing shows that on average ‘gamblers’ are beginning to do better than ‘believers’. Usually happens at pivots only.

From market conviction loss POV BTC going through second acute phase of losing believers in this bear mkt of which we used to have 2/3 per bear previously.

Then on to demand which is key IMO, all other charts are irrelevant until we see enough people start to come back in hopes of front-running Fed pivot.

Best on-chain tool to gauge demand is txn fees trend. Promising uptick recently may or may not be beginning of smth bigger.

It may just be one of capitulation wicks when people rush in to sell / take BTC off an exchange at the same time.

Proportion of ‘young and cheap’ coins is poking its head out of the tumbleweed zone too corroborating the fees chart.

To sum up

a) it does not look to me that BTC is doing anything abnormal vs its previous cycles behaviour and

b) it does *look* to me we are crossing the market bottom by NY then the first stage of the newly coming market cycle may begin.

Watch the signs of demand.

A reminder that you can always find these and other charts for free on

And thanks for supporting Ukraine to those who do!🇺🇦

ChainExposed - Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics
This post is based on this twitter thread.


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