Top down analyse for BTC going into december🧵 Will share my current view on btc from high timeframe to low.
3D: big downtrend, broke trendline which is a positive sign but still below major resistance. So far no change in trend to see on the 3D timeframe.
Daily: Lost important area at 18.5k which is now very strong resistance as the volume profile confirms. First big level is 17.6k then 18.5k. Downside targets are a potential three tap at the lows or breakdown to 14.3k. Ask @Workhard130 why.
4H: Broke above the Poc with strength, local priority is bullish but my system gives a bearish divergence which is concerning. IF we get a retracement 16.4-16.6k must hold imo to avoid a big drop. As long as that support hold it’s bullish, lose it and 15.6-14.3 is likely 🐂>🐻
1H: BTC had a nice pump and is now forming a pennant. Technically this should continue to the upside but it can shake some longs out first. Upside targets on the chart but will monitor them closely for possible rejections to short them back to the must hold support.
If i get a short i will look for the reaction at must hold support. Hold and I flip long but otherwise i hold the short open. In that case I’ll look for a three tap/ three drive for a bullish reaction or at 14.3k.
I’m open for both option but I’m currently bias a bit more bearish. This is because es looks toppy to me and because the long term trend is still massively bearish.
Downtrend> consolidation> downtrend > consolidation. There’s still no change in that.
Also in this chart we see clearly a strong downtrend and as long as 19k doesn’t get reclaimed the overall trend is still down, not one singel time this bearmarket we had a proper reclaim of an important level. How high is that probability now?
All in all ltf looks bullish but higher timeframes are still very bearish. There’s no reclaim or trend change yet so don’t get too bullish here. Stand open for both possibilities and go with the flow✌️ If you liked it please show some love, can do this more often if it’s liked.
This post is based on this twitter thread.