BTC - D1
D1 downtrend retest.
BTC - H4
Despite D1 downtrend retest, my main idea remains: IF 16.4-16.6k && H4 trend flips support THEN aim for H4 200 EMA higher (wherever it is, for now it's sitting at 17,500)
Therefore mainly watching this area if/when retested.
Just want to insist that as much as this move and impulse has been good, and brought some joy on the TL, as muc has macro bottom could (nobody has a fucking clue) be in... This entire move remains a daily downtrend retest... And nothing more.
Proper strength from here ? - Start by flipping 16.4-16.6k support and holding a H4 trend for longer than 8h, - Retest H4 200 EMA @ 17.5k, - Flip D1 13 EMA support, - Let D1 stoch reset (currently maxed), - Break rest of D1 downtrend and go for 18/19k retest.
Thisd be impressive
Until then, and as long as we are in daily downtrends I can't be aggressive with long exposure, I have to continue constantly paying myself when positioned in this direction, have to exit at every signs of weakness I see.
Might sound boring as fuck to many, no degen enough... But truth is that this has saved my ass and folio massively past 12 months, keeping my folio at levels I could not have hoped for after a year of bear market... No reasons to change.
As usual when > where.
I've already covered this in details all year after every crash/big moves, but basically the gameplan after these has always been: 1) Avoid long exposure until LTF trends reclaimed 2) If/when reclaimed, play gaps up to 100 MA/200 EMA and higher TF trend 3) Wait to see if broken
Right now we're in between 1) and 2): - H1 trend reclaimed, - We're above H4 trend and 100 MA but haven't retested them.
If 16.4-16.6k defended, we open the door for rest of 2) to play out.
Then comes 3) with - here - retests of D1 downtrends as highlighted above.
1) is in orange 2) in purple and red 3) circle green main target and where we exit and wait again to see if higher TF trends broken or respected
leaking a bit more of content from @TheHavenCrypto but basically this is what I'm watching on BTC H1: - Reclaim/flip 16.9k and IMO we could see a H4 200 EMA (17.5k) retest without retesting 16.4-16.6k, - If flipped resistance on LTF, 16.4-16.6k is next and crucial to hold.
This post is based on this twitter thread.