2/6 "BOX" (long and short same amt, removes PnL from the equation and gives time to inject firm with capital and unwind when capital arrives)
To "BOX" you short in the equivalent of the problem position (635k Bitcoins, etc.) so that the price movement won't death knell you.
I worked at Amaranth and Wall St is sure to capitalize on your massive position, the longer it persists. Would be so simple, IMO- here's sort how it plays out - a) big firms look at your books under the guise of interest in funding b) pass on funding, claim its "toxic"
C) return "home" (knowing your problems real intimately now. similar to a surgeon) and then proceed to LEAN to the opposite of what you need, tell their other friends, and then the REAL fun (and possible panic) begins.
Purely bc you so big,
5/6 as I been saying YA'LL ARE TRAPPED and ONLY 2 options 1) "explosion" in price down OR 2) large injection in capital ASAP to "grip and rip" price upward.
Hope 2nd scenario. My unsolicited advice is to start HEDGING before 2023. There are no friends when comes to money.
6/6 No one may care about little ole me and my opinion, but experience. This scenario may take months to play out. April to Sept 2006 for Amaranth and we liquidated BILLIONS, TWICE to save Nat Gas book to meet margin. Maybe try to not ruin Bitcoin for rest of us and "box" it up
Not advice and opinion only. But if you got firms looking at your books, oh boy, good luck.
Fingers crossed for you.
Amaranth couldn't "box" as the book "Hedge Hogs" story of Amaranth it became apparent that Amaranth WAS the mkt in nat gas 2006. Too big. Too levered. TrappedThis post is based on this twitter thread.