I wonder how many companies would fold if BTC goes lower..
We saw highly leveraged companies like Alameda and 3AC go bust due to rapidly falling asset prices
Sure to be another round of bankruptcies if price nukes further
Life or death for some to protect prices here
When Celsius fell, they needed to offload a ton of Bitcoin, ETH etc
Same for all these other levered guys
Keeping the bottom here ensures they are safe for now from this contagion & the lights stay on
One domino falls.. more follow
Lets see if they can keep hold of the ball
I'm of the opinion macro in 2023 takes crypto lower into the deep waters..
I'm struggling to see the bull case atm
but there is a real desperation to keep BTC / ETH prices from falling lower
Which is giving me the feeling of "protection at all costs"
If the next domino falls.. Genesis, an exchange etc
Then the next leg would be a painful flush of those clinging on by their finger nails
Conditions are tight right now.. its difficult for businesses who've only operated in optimal credit conditions
The squeeze is real
Maybe FTX / Alameda was the last domino.. maybe not
I don't believe the bottom is in but I'm not ruling out the possibility of it
Interesting times ahead..
We will see the effect of the Feds actions from 2022 in 2023
Credit pain is next
Summary..
- More macro pain ahead
- Recession is coming
- Crypto needs to hold these levels or companies will fall
- Contagion ensures next flush is red and painful
- Companies will need to offload assets
- This may not happen
- Project "Protection at all costs" in play
This post is based on this twitter thread.