Gary Black
Gary Black 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

We Didn’t Let Elon Musk Put $TSLA SH at Risk for Good

Only one other time did I think @elonmusk was putting TSLA SH at risk. That was Feb 2021 when TSLA invested 1.5B in btc @ 32K per btc. I exited TSLA at 290 (split-adj) then re-entered in May/Jun at <200 when it became clear TSLA wouldn’t buy more BTC as institutions exited.

2/ Back then, like now, Elon was convinced he was right and for a while he was. btc soared to 60K and Elon tweeted non-stop about Btc and Doge “going to the moon.” But then Elon stopped tweeting as btc crashed back to 32K, then soared again, and finally crashed for good.

3/ We almost exited TSLA again in Apr 2022 at 340 when Elon bid 54.20 for TWTR. I was convinced that Elon buying TWTR was bad for TSLA SHs, and was sure he’d be forced to buy TWTR by the DE court. But we didn’t pull the trigger, comforted that Elon, not TSLA, was buying TWTR.

4/ What will change? IMHO: 1) @elonmusk will come to his senses that attacking his woke left customer base is hurting the TSLA brand and he will tone down his political views. 2) Elon will soon appoint a TWTR CEO and resume his duties as TSLA CEO full time, easing SH tensions.

5/While a 50% drawdown on TSLA our largest position is not good for performance, we believe little TSLA value has been impaired to date, and 2023-2024 catalysts (7,500 IRA, 10B buyback, FSD beta, Cytruck, M-30K) can unlock TSLA underlying value, which we still peg at 550/sh.

6/ Just to be clear, as long-term investors we’re not selling TSLA at a depressed price of 170/share share vs an estimated TSLA valuation of 550/share. We will let this play out. We expect Elon and the Board to do the right thing for TSLA SH.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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