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TraderLBI ๐Ÿซ 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Long Live 1M bullish reversals?

spx spy es

Did a deep dive into long term trend reversals using @Tradingalpha_ indicators. This is presented as an unprofessional data group, not financial advise. If you want good trading advise, listen to @ZeroHedge_ himself. A quick ๐Ÿงต

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1953 - present there have been 14 confirmed 1M bullish reversals using the @Tradingalpha_ system. This is only counting reversal bars confirmed by a higher price in one of the two subsequent months after the reversal bar. Confirming bar must close above the reversal bar high.

Last months confirmed reversal is the 14th, so we only have outcome data for 13. Of the 13 previous reversals, 11 have produced new highs before trading below the low local to the reversal bar. These successful reversals are marked in green lines. Thats an 85% hit rate.

Note also that any time the confirming bar closed significantly above the reversal bar, price always retraced into the reversal candle or within 1% of the wick. Never just confirm and pull away to the upside. Price is currently resting at the top of recent reversal bar.

The two failed reversals are marked in red. One in August of '69 and one in October of '01. Both instances produced a subsequent drawdown of 25% over the next 9 months before the final low of that cycle was reached.

The two orange lines are unconfirmed reversal bars that turned out to be successful bottoms, but were unconfirmed per the rules. I think both of them could technically be considered confirmed by the green alpha thrust bars but i could be wrong on that.

Anyone that actually read this far, what do you think? If October was not the bottom, statistically speaking we should bottom somewhere around 30% lower or spx 2705 in/around July 2023. See any other clues in any other indicators?

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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