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Bitcoin Price at the 'Bottom'

TLDR thread on @Arthur_0x essay about BTC bottom. 🧵

PEMDAS

The question being discussed is whether the current price of Bitcoin is at the "bottom," or the lowest point it will reach in this market cycle.

The three main groups that were forced to sell their Bitcoin at low prices were centralised lending and trading firms, mining operations, and ordinary speculators. All of these groups misused leverage, leading to their liquidations.

As interest rates on short-term US Treasury bonds have increased, everyone has suffered significant losses due to their bullish convictions about Bitcoin.

It is believed that these groups no longer have any more Bitcoin to sell, meaning that the recent low prices may be the bottom of this market cycle.

The author discusses their plan for trading at this possible bottom, taking into account the potential for being wrong on the timing or level.

The order of operations for bankruptcies is explained, with centralised lending firms usually going bankrupt due to either lending to entities that can't pay them back or having mismatched durations in their lending books.

Mining operations go bankrupt due to a lack of capital to fund operations and the inability to pay off debt.

Ordinary speculators, or retail traders, go bankrupt due to using too much leverage and not properly managing their risk.

The author believes that these three groups have now gone bankrupt, leading to the possibility that the bottom of the market has been reached.

The author plans to trade at this possible bottom while protecting their portfolio and being prepared for the possibility of being wrong on the timing or level.

This summary was actually created by chatGPT 🫡 @OpenAI

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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