Nico
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BTC Macro Analysis for Q2 2018 – A Last Chance Look

BTC macro analysis for the coming year

🔸What would be a 1st sign of bottom?

I would like to see a sustained Higher high on the weekly timeframe to really start thinking about a bottom formation.

Similar to what happened in 2015, 2018/9, 2020

🔸New lows ahead?

Currently it is difficult to imagine cases that could lead to new lows (big drops not 10), that is, events like FTX, LUNA, etc.

If something new happens w/ a big player, it would be another black swan very hard to predict & even harder to measure the impact

🔸 Where is the money?

Today the market seems expectant of something that will boost it & wake it up (FED?) and take it out of the catatonic state.

Retail seems dead & without interest on the market. Worldwide inflation make it difficult to get exposure to risky assets

Institutional that were part of the ecosystem were hit hard since they all seem to be or were a scam (Proof of reserves needed as some act of transparency)

And If they were not involved yet, they dont want to get in today either (fear to get stuck or related to some new scam)

So pretty much thats it, wait for a HH that will surely bring a HL that will the last chance to get in closer to the bottom.

In the meantime, keep stacking sats (maybe at a lower rate, just in case!) and stay safe!

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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