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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin: Price Analysis, New Year's Eve

1/16.

I haven't posted any charts in days — that translates to above average shitposting (for my own taste) — so I'll write a nice thread about BTC / ETH / SPX, covering first 1D/1W and 4h/1h after.

Please leave a like/RT for more reach if you enjoyed 🫡

BTC - 1W

Levels not really changed, still eyeing nPoCs between 12-13k *if we don't hold this cycle anchored VWAP*. Yearly PoC also sitting at 19k, resistance now (who knows if support in 2023?).

BTC - 1D

Switched to a more local view here, that same yPoC confluences with the main unfilled FVG we have and with a high sweep (17700ish).

We may crab for a while before retesting that, detailing now in even lower timeframe chart

BTC - 4H

So why did I say we could be crabbing here for a while? See trend change, I don't really think lower lows created after a fast spike up are really bullish.

Marked a key FVG that BTC must break before planning that 19k retest.

That's all I have to say about BTC, so I'll wrap it up:

I expect more crab going into New Year's, then a small rally to 19k (frontrun 20k at all costs) just to either slowly bleed — most likely — or nuke all the way down and create new lows

ETH - 1W

Looking here at the same things I've shown for BTC before, nothing too special to say, although I'm looking at those nPoCs at 800/750. 500 if you're really bearish.

ETH - 1D

I've had the same daily chart for several months (check last HTF thread) but It's time to change it a bit — keeping old levels as well ofc.

Just need a volume profile to see how first price first made new highs, then showed resistance at VAH/PoC/VAL respectively.

Nothing really to say on the 4h that I already haven't mentioned on BTC, just worth noting:

We have 1400-ish as a target — anything inside that big FVG. No exact numbers since there's no nPoC in that zone.

ETH / BTC - 1W

Here's where the spicy comes. What stops ETH from being way lower against BTC? 2018 had way larger drawdowns, this can perfectly be the case throughout 2023.

Targeting first the low at 0.065 (with VWAP/FVG confluence) — this should be rather imminent.

**Eventually** we could get below the 0.045 low, if it happens it will be during early bull. I'm not confident in this but I'll give it at least a chance.

SPX - 4H

Not the first time I share this chart, but I'll go over it again Gap/VWAP (how not) confluence still in play, imo if what I have marked as key high is broken then we can go to previous' month PoC

Else we'll be sitting in a tight range, confirming what I've seen on BTC

Now it's time to look at macro. I've spent less and less time keeping up with the data, but @fofty_oerneey surely helped me to get back on track like I used to be (FF to him)

The last FOMC had a clear message behind it: "more for longer".

I may not be the first one saying this. However, Powell repeatedly mentioned this, besides seeing changes in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — below.

If an ease in 2023 wasn't likely, guess what, now it's even less.

Another thing that I've read/I believe is that we've been gradually focusing less on the hike amount.

Remember how everyone was freaking out for 0.25 in Feb? Now that doesn't matter anymore, while the target rate becomes more and more important as we're getting closer to the end

I'll leave other metrics for a more detailed macro thread since I feel this is getting too long, but overall for 2023:

The hikes we got left aren't *that* much, what will matter more is how we start trading during the time in which rates are on hold.

And now back to the charts. I want to highlight the use of VWAP + FVG confluence, which personally has worked for me over the last months.

I'll also write a thread with proper explanation and backtests in the future.

That finishes my long thread. Thanks for reading...

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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