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Bitcoin Price and the Bear Market – $BTC Bear Market Bottom

For the 1st time ever...

BTC RSI brokedown from an area that has historically preceded outsized Returns On Investment for long-term investors

Past reversals from around this area include Jan 2015, Dec 2018 & March 2020

All Bear Market bottoms

A thread

BTC Crypto Bitcoin


Overall, the BTC Monthly RSI is forming a red Wedge

BTC Bull Market Tops occur at the RSI Wedge Top

And Bear Market Bottoms occur at the RSI Wedge Bottom

BTC has lost this market structure, breaking down from the Bear Market Bottom area (green)

Crypto Bitcoin


Bullish Divergence tend to form at BTC Bear Market Bottom RSI levels (green trendline)

Currently, BTC is searching for its first bottom which would build the macro Bullish Divergence

Crypto Bitcoin


When could this BTC RSI Bear Market Bottom take place in this cycle?

It took 1461 days for the 2018 Bear Market Bottom to form after the 2015 Bear Market Bottom

If the same symmetry repeats, the upcoming Bear Market Bottom could occur in Jan' 2023

BTC Crypto Bitcoin


But if we focus on historical RSI tendencies in the context of the BTC Halving...

Then we'll notice that the RSI bottoms closer and closer to the Halving

Could it be that RSI bottoms prior to the Halving are occurring ~60 days earlier each time?

BTC Crypto Bitcoin


BTC bottomed in 2015 approx. 547 days before the 2nd Halving

BTC bottomed in 2018 approx. 486 days before the 3rd Halving

If BTC bottoms 425 days before the 4th Halving in April 2024, then that bottom would in fact take place in February 2023

Crypto Bitcoin


Therefore it appears that the BTC RSI Bear Market Bottom may occur sometime in Q1 of 2023

But the BTC RSI Bear Market Bottom is only one part of the equation

To fully confirm a new Bull Market RSI trend...

RSI would need to reclaim the red Wedge bottom

Crypto Bitcoin


After all, the red BTC Wedge bottom is acting as a confluent resistance with the previous Bear Market Bottom area (green)

This region needs to be reclaimed as new support to confirm a new macro uptrend

What does the BTC RSI need to do first however?

Crypto Bitcoin


First, BTC RSI needs to breakout from this orange downtrending channel

This channel depicts the RSI downtrend & has formed just below the red Macro Wedge

A BTC RSI channel breakout would end the RSI downtrend

Crypto Bitcoin


Once the BTC RSI breaks out from the small orange channel...

The BTC RSI would be ready to challenge for a reclaim of the green area as support

A reclaim of the bottom of the red Macro Wedge as support would likely confirm a new bullish trend for RSI

Crypto Bitcoin


In sum, it's clear that BTC has entered extremely oversold RSI conditions

Historically, long-term BTC investors who'd accumulated in these conditions have benefited from high Return On Investment in the many months that followed

Crypto Bitcoin


I regularly share this type of level-headed, unbiased analysis in the Rekt Capital Newsletter

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This post is based on this twitter thread.


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