BTC is currently looking weak and could re-test the lows soon, although a bear trap might actually be in play….
Let’s take a look at the charts 👇🏼 🧵 (1/10)
Honestly I believe the bottom for BTC is closer than most think, yet many things can happen in between
BTC has been in a tight range since the FTX collapse although with volatility so low, a big move is coming soon…
BTC won’t see an exciting move until we break the range marked below between 16.9k - 16.4k
There are 2 scenarios I can see playing out here in the short - medium term timeframe once we break the range (next tweet)
BTC will likely try to take the liquidity pool down to 16.4k now, but a break below this range will see us retest the 15.6k range
We could also see a scam wick down to this 16.4k area and then a push out of the zone to trap bears
Both are plausible
What I’m more concerned with is the fact that DXY seems to have built a medium time frame support at the 103.7 level
See the wicks circled below on the weekly timeframe, as a result we may see a trend upwards in Q1 if this doesn’t change, although it’s likely short lived
As a result of DXY finding support and SPX rejecting the monthly downward trend line the area to hold here on SPX is 3762
- (THIS IS IMPORTANT)
If this level is lost this week, any hope of pushing back up to retest is unlikely and we probably see green boxes taken below👇
Here’s where we are on the high time frame perspective for SPX
Nothing has changed yet, trend still intact
Both potential bottom ranges can be seen marked by the horizontal lines 👇🏼
On the higher timeframe for BTC if we break the 15k lows we will see a push down to the 14k level which likely holds
In a worst case scenario we see the 11.5k range, this is likely to happen only if SPX hits our lower range
SUMMARY: (1/2)
- BTC will likely retest the lows in short term
- 20K is still in play until the lows are broken
- Watching for any form of HTF support at the current lows as a sign to go long on BTC
SUMMARY: (2/2)
- SPX and DXY don’t look favourable for crypto currently
- If SPX continues to dump we likely see new lows for crypto, at which point I think we bottom completely
- A move up to 20k in Q1 can still result in new lows afterwards
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