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Despite there is full of fears in the market, let's take a look at the on-chain data in the past period. Please read this tweet.
1) First, let's analyze the recent 7 days' data. We excluded those unlabelled exchange cold wallets and found that only 4,236 old BTC moved (hold more than 100 days).
2) Extreme Loss is slowly accumulating, but not quite as much as in 2018.
3) Recently, some BTC were transferred from cold wallets to hot wallets like the unlabelled cold wallet in the chart below. By comparing the balance of the address and BTC price, we found that historically the BTC price will go up soon after its balance decreases.
4) We analyzed the outflow address of coins of the cold wallet, and we found it finally flowed into the unlabelled exchange hot wallet address in the chart below, and some coins were withdrawn from the exchange.
5) By using the “Sum up” function, we found that some addresses bought 5,276 BTC in the last 7 days.
6) It doesn’t mean a full recovery of the market. In August-September 2020, we can see on the chain four major stablecoins together flowed into the exchange, which has not yet been seen currently.
7) The process of the recovery of the market is slow. This tweet only represents some on-chain situations in the past period. On-chain data is changing rapidly and no prediction can be made for the future.This post is based on this twitter thread.