Bitcoin Price Analysis – Market Multiples Models

The clash of bitcoin price models - Quarterly update (Jan 8, 2023). Yesterday's closing price and model projections:

- BTC: 17.0K

- DPC: 17.7K

- Power Law: 45.3K

- HODL: 57.0K

- S2F: 82.7K

- RMA730: 84.2K

- Exp. Growth: 110K

- RS2FO: 132K

- LCONT: 203K

Model multiples (projected price / price of bitcoin):

- DPC: 1.04

- Power Law: 2.67

- HODL: 3.36

- S2F: 4.88

- RMA730: 4.97

- Exp. Growth: 6.51

- RS2FO: 7.76

- LCONT: 11.95

Models with multiples persistently staying over 2 or under 0.5 are not useful in practice.

Time span of charts: 17 years and 5 years

Yesterday's BTC closing price & respective model multiples are shown on the 2nd chart. Best fit is by DPC model (red curve): 1.043 * BTC was projected for yesterday's close.

Let me know of any models worthy of joining the clash!

...

List of models:

- DPC: Dynamic Power Cycle

- Power law: Log-log growth

- HODL: Inverse Hyperbolic Tangent

- S2F: Stock-to-Flow

- RMA730: Raised 730-day moving ave.

- Exp. growth: Constant annual return

- RS2FO: Raised Stock-to-FOMO

- LCONT: Life Cycle of New Tech (mid)

Model proponents:

- DPC: @DeFi_initiate

- Power law: @hcburger1

- HODL: @therationalroot

- S2F: @100trillionUSD

- RMA730: @PositiveCrypto

- Exp. growth: @TechDev_52

- RS2FO: @w_s_bitcoin

- LCONT: @jclcapital

Dive further into models and predictions:

by @BitcoinEcon

(I find this site very informative but am not affiliated with it)

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This post is based on this twitter thread.