Bull Market Detection
How to be rather sure that a new BTC bull market started by using the BBB indicator?
The answer could be: When BTC stayed at least 15 days above the BBB (Bull/Bear Boundary) line and price trends up on day 15 and later.
In March 2022 BTC was 18 days above BBB, but clearly trended down on day 15.
The 2014/15 bear market was a bit different.
BTC stayed 77 & 66 days above BBB & trended down on day 18 & 26.
1st case: Sideways on day 15-17. No entry. 2nd case: Possible to get out with a profit.
End 2015 there was an entry point on day 14-17 above BBB & previous resistance.
Conclusion
Week 3 after BTC stays above the BBB line seems to be crucial. If there is still an uptrend, there is a very good chance that a new bull market started. Especially if there were 3 failed breakouts above BBB before.
So far only 2 false breakouts. So the next breakout above BBB could still fail. Does not mean the bottom was not already in Nov 2022.
BitcoinEcon on TwitterThis post is based on this twitter thread.