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Bitcoin Chart Analysis: The Next $BTC Top

🧵 What this chart tells us about the next BTC top.

1/ BTC vs. the S&P500 is making a right-angled broadening wedge - typically a bullish pattern. While I think crypto is on the verge of a big breakout vs. equities, I don't think we breach the highs any time soon.

2/ As I outlined in the tweet below, I think BTC is forming a megaphone pattern, which I'm also seeing across other assets. This points to a prolonged period of volatility with higher highs and higher lows, before the pattern normally resolves upwards.

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3/ Yield curve inversion normally points to a coming recession. While I expect markets to do well for the first half of this year, I suspect the bounce will be short-lived. I see the SPX topping out at the 1.618 fib level, which is around 5.6k, before making new lows in '24.

4/ Going back to my first chart in this thread, the top would give us a ratio of 1:15 on BTC vs. SPX. SPX at 5.6k, that gives us a BTC price of c.84k, which lines up perfectly with the top of my log trend for BTC.

5/ I'm expecting SPX to bottom at c.3.2k in '24. Following my first chart, BTC would bottom at around 2.5x SPX, which would mean c.8k BTC before the market continues to the upside. Again, this matches almost perfectly with the bottom of my log trend and megaphone pattern.

6/ Obviously predictions on these timeframes require a decent margin of error, but I am trying to use multiple assets for clues about future price action. I suspect if BTC hits new highs this year, everyone will be bullish, just as the pain begins again.

Edit: second tweet should read "higher highs and lower lows"

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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