Sharing my rational on BTC. Like all of us, was nervous after all that was going on after the several collapses (Luna, FTX, etc). I zoomed out and tried to rethink my business case. Here goes:
BTC Invest. thesis:
1. Globally thrustless P2P electronic payment system and Medium of Exchange
2. Bitcoin’s architecture + limited = Superior Store of Value - Digital Gold
3. Increasing global demand due to weak currencies in Dev. Eco (and not USD or EUR as many defend)
The Metrics I look into (all free): 1. Focus on Adoption, Network Resilience 2. Market Sentiment
3. Market Cycle
Bitcoin Hash Rate remains very healthy Source: @glassnode
Looks at current price times supply (market cap) versus the cumulative “realized” value of
“free float” coins (those that have moved in <5 years) at the price at which they last moved
Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) flags as expected a very low point in the cycle where with "possible" bottom readings
On top of this we can zoom in in the Realized Price that tells us the average purchase price of all bitcoins in circulation - Currently at USD 19,890 vs BTC Price of c. USD 19,000 today. Same source: @Lookintobtc
All indicators were giving us some signals that this rally could take place to closer to the at least Realized Price. Yet BTC can stay some time below these levels at it happened in past bear market cycles.
Hope this analysis helped! Stay safe out there. This goes without saying that any recovery will depend on the way the current crisis affecting the crypto space will unfold (GBTC/FTX/etc) that can create selling pressure!
And combined the Macro environment (Inflation / Interest Rate dynamics) are crucial to dictate the institutional investors appetite for risk on assets again and gain comfort to return to BTC .This post is based on this twitter thread.