Psibirskiy
Psibirskiy 4 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Opinion: Cryptocurrency Rally Is Just Getting Started

btc I've posted these counts before but just updating

them since we have had significant changes and my thoughts relative to them

Not saying we have finished this rally yet either, is more about the higher TF view. Could be in a W4 (in an uptrend) atm.

1/

2/

July or Aug I had the flat option as my main count, then many had it & and I got less fond of it due to that. Then I had issues relative to time when I would finish/

It is not unreasonable to think it isn't a flat when you map it out on 2nd screen.

Could be W4 or X

3/ I posted that it could have been W3 bottom in. TBH I am more fond of this over all the other counts, albeit with the issues it has. All noted on chart

4/

Could crypto make another headway for a drop in equities (SPY/NDX could be in a leading diagonal down with W5 to come ) & possible DXY run up? Not sure about that.

I think this scenario would require equities to have local bottomed already in that expanded flat option I had

5/ I would now probably cross this option off. Highly unlikely

6/ We have Euro markets rallied hard, HK/CN markets rallied hard, USA equities don't look impulsive off the low

DXY smashed due to BoJ interventions but stable'ish. Many currencies rallied hard. TBH the Japan thing could be some catalyst

& now crypto.

What do the odds favour?

7/ I forgot metals as well. It could be where everything is lining up to move down, or maybe things just continue up. Odds favour the former IMO. Crypto can rally still more tho

Is Japan the storm in the teacup or they handled it?

They had to intervene twice on Thur/Fri

8/ On the flip side the new 'narrative' is now that there is a soft landing, a pivot is coming & recession is probably not coming.

Reality will fix that, but can this be months down the track?

Or will Powell give once again a reality check to the market on FOMC ? Weeks away tho

9/ Point is, the market will act delusional. Pointless fighting it but position yourself. Whatever narrative they have may make no sense but don't rekt yourself thinking something is a foregone conclusion. Bear market rallies happen and can last a while.

10/ lastly or this is just a typical technical bear market rally and most participants were mostly end up exit liquidity.

Crypto generally tops and bottoms first FYI so don't go waiting on equities for either direction, bottoms or tops.

I forgot one post in my thread. Was this count.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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