MarkMilit
MarkMilit 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price: Maybe The Bottom Is Not Yet In Yet

Thread with my toughts about BTC and Crypto :

Bottom in or not? Let's see with some ideas and metrics.

Bitcoin ETH

First pump after a low volatility period in bear era, comparison with the past:

- Low volatility for 18 weeks during 2018/2019 bear era, then the first meaningful pump for BTC. - Low volatility for 8 weeks during 2022/2023 bear era, then the first meaningful pump for BTC.

The % of the pump is similar (at the moment) but the low volatility period is very short nowadays.

Dominance (BTC.D)

The increasing price of BTC during april 2019 leads to an increasing dominance for different months. Increasing dominance = BTC performs better than most of alts.

According to the past history, during this kind of period and after the bottom, it is better hodling just BTC. Now in 2023 we see a BTC pump in price with the dominance starts to increase.

Are we in this kind of period? Let's check another metric to help

Whale wallets:

We can see the number of addresses with more than 1000 BTC and how they manage to ride the market. Every time they start to accumulate at the bottom or they create it. Infact there are big spikes in the number of these addresses during the 2015 and 2018 bear era.

LookIntoBitcoin indicators

If you go to check this page most of the indicators are in "buy" area. It doesn't mean it is for sure the bottom, they can stay there and chop for a while. After the recent spike in price for BTC some of them are going a bit out of the buy area.

But according to these indicators it doesn't seem the worst spot to buy some BTC.

I don't post them but I let to you the link:

Home | LookIntoBitcoin

Conclusion:

Maybe the bottom is not in yet, who knows. I'd love to see the spike in BTC whale addresses like in the previous cycles. However it doesn't seem a bad spot to buy BTC, to convert with new shiny coins after a run in BTC.D in some months. It worked for the past cycles.

What do you think?

This post is based on this twitter thread.

Comments

Please login to comment.