UK 'Markets 2022-23 Are Here, But You Can’t Tell Yet

UK 'Markest 202-23 Trends:

thread

w/ pics👇

FTSE100 i1.3% from

ALL TIME HIGH👀 FTSE250 + 6.6% Gold +4% copper +9%

BTC

+13%

DAX +7% China🚀

- Look back at 22:

winners and losers - Smart Money says - Trends persisting - Trends emerging -

Ideas

1/n

⏭️2022 lookback

2022 Ended with a Whine

Total UK

-21% av loss : better than -21% you beat the market (excl divis)

FTSE100 index + 1%

tho AIM

-34% 1448 losers

364 winners

AIM

140

made money

589 lost money👀

renewables retailers construction travel leisure

slaughtered

2/n

⏭️

What Worked in 2022? 364 winners - mean return +33%

Dominant narrative inflation, rising rates,

energy COL crisis😱

Tobacco best performer (pricing power to addicts!) Oil leaner ops

oil price 🚀 50 wins mining 41 winners Banks

rates & capital structure 11 wins

3/n

⏭️

What Got Killed in '22?

Table Median Sector Performance👇

13 names in renewables lose w/

-65% 60 Pharms 🔽 w/ sector -57%

Retail related sectors lost 40% +

MADE BUMP BAR

-80% or more

Travel

57 names 🔽 -40%5

Construction 26 names

-48% 4/n ⏭️ macro Oultooks 23

Institutions Warn 23

more

Same -

tho' Back End Will Imrprove

- consensus

a dire start to 2023

Read

summaries & find links below to

Blackrock, BARC, BAC, JPM, BARC, GS

- 9 major instis

5/n

Institutional Global Macro Outlooks 2023 - runprofits

2023 Starts: Mr Market Loves to Shock!

8 days in 👀

1035 winners

739 losers mean price +5%

330 names up >10%🚀 100 names > 20%

check

table of winners👇 look back at 22 losers - swapped places

😯mean reversion in action

Biggest loser '23 ❔

= TOBACCO - so last yr

6/n

Retail Sector Drill Down as An Example

2022 vs 2023 (YTD)👀 one

v red one v green

the reddest reds in 22 ASC THG MMAG guess the greenest greens in '23?

Not universal BUT

working in many sectors

👉depends on earnings AND expectations (v lo)

AND short interest

7/n ⏭️

Explosive rally in Past Week May be Reflected in Reduced Short Interest: there's a lag on Reporting

ASC still top of the table

tho +40% YTD rem: an 80% loss needs a 500% gain to get whole !

"bear" rallies often crazy owing to short covering & wrong positioning - FOMO

8/n

Persisting & Emerging Trends

Banks continue Mom from '22

Inflation exp cooling - rate of rates🔼 abates so DXY drops - EM & commods++ - Travel Retail Construct 👇 - Pharm

AXN ATH

Gold

gone nuts since Nov Lo 1600 now 1900 PM Miners

Doc Copper

rip

as China opens✅

9/n

Appreciate if you'd retweet the first tweet in this thread

- share and help

Comments, criticisms and

feedback always 🙏

tons more at

10/10

All

% gains are YTD in 2023 - Title Should Read "Markets 2022-23"

10 part thread ... we need that edit

This post is based on this twitter thread.