VivalaCoin
VivalaCoin 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Gem Brace Yourselves for a Sell-Off in Feb. 2018

NFA but imo btc

was so overextended, I don't see another path other than rolling over from here.

W/ tradfi in at critical point, imo sell pressure amplifies going into wk 1 of Feb.

The real question is how far do we drop, & if we go above 4110 S&P, is there a delay?🧵1/6

I've stated before, but the bond market is signaling more pain to come.

🔵Current ⚫️Jul '08 🟢Dec '00

The 30yr is buried, inverted to the extreme

Both 10yr - 1yr spread AND 10yr to 2yr spread lowest since the 80s 🧵2/6

Historically, once the curve inverts, it reverts rather quickly, & 7 out of 7 prior recessions occurred after this inversion-> reversion.

Also it is significant enough to break a 40yr trend in treasury yield. Which makes me questions how "healthy" the immediate future is 🧵 3/6

With volatility, the vix hit its lowest point since January of last year, & both prior Jan in '21 & '22 came with a spike in volatility following <20

If the S&P fails to break above/confirm/hold the 200d, which rests at 3,981 atm, & move into early Feb sell pressure ➡️🩸 🧵4/6

I know there are certainly factors for a possible serious bear rally, & some of the inflows on btc

we beyond what we've seen on a single day since fall of '21.

MACD is favoring a climb in the S&P

But, the bond/debt markets hold more weight than other indicators imo🧵5/6

There will come a day when crypto decouples from these other markets, but not yet

This & @tagteamcrypto are my views, not financial or personal advice

It's educational. This/my outlook was ignored in '22 by ppl that don't want to prepare for scenarios that aren't the moon 🧵6/6

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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