Lorenzo B.C. Corrado
Lorenzo B.C. Corrado 5 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Imposing a Bull Market? The Bitcoin Price Continues to Fall

BTC on the Monthly Timeframe.

Imbalance under the 15,600 has yet to be filled. The 25,300 is the most important level to break.

If you are serious. Read my macro TA underneath👇🏼

Option 1:

We break the 25,300 and develop a weekly closure above. 👆🏼

We create a strong Monthly CHoCH to the upside developing a significant HH.

We wait for a Pullback to 18,500 followed by a possible continuation to the upside, targeting the 32,700.

Read more 👇🏼

Option 2:

We failed to break and develop a weekly close above the 25,300 and take the Stop Losses and Stop Orders causing a strong reversal, pushing down to our next target of 12,100.

Keep in mind, that there is still a lot of imbalance and liquidity underneath

Read more 👇🏼

At this particular moment, I still lean more towards Option 2. And here are the reasons why:

1: Google is laying off 12.000 employees while Microsoft 10,000 as ‘spending slows’. These are the first strong signs of an Economic slow down, and strong variables.

Read more 👇🏼

2. The inflation is ‘coming down’.

However, the target is still to bring inflation down to 2 percent. Therefore the fed will increasing the Interest Rates up to 5.1% in 2023.

This could devaluate the other currencies and can

cause a new DXY rally after a strong pull back.

3: The Debt Ceiling of 31.4 Trillion has been reached by the US. Which can cause a huge Global Financial Crisis.

'Holding the debt limit hostage could have direct economic consequences for Americans.'

So far, a request of increasing the debt limit is denied.

BTC DXY

4:

BTC

is still viewed as a tech stock and is following closely what the Indices US100 US500 US30 are doing, even though, most of the time we are witnessing a stronger reaction.

From a Fundamental and Technical standpoint, the Indices have more downside potential.

5: The VIX

has a strong negative correlation with the Indices (up to 85%), therefore if the VIX goes up, usually, the indices go down.

From a technical standpoint. The VIX has taken out major levels of liquidity, and is bouncing from a strong area of demand.

BTC

6: The last two significant BTC pumps to the upside where both on a Saturday.

Usually this indicates, that Retail is buying. Causing a bigger gap between the institutions and retail traders while also building tons of liquidity underneath.

Weekend pump.

7: Talking about the Institutions.

When looking at the COT reports. Institutions are still holding more short positions then long positions, at this specific moment.

People tend to overlook the COT data which is publicly released every Tuesday.

12.456 Long vs 13.083 Short

Conclusion:

Due to the TAX offset of many retailers in this New Year in combination with a lower then expected CPI. I think we are witnessing a bullish Q1.

The questions is, will this be sustainable or will the Global Economy do it's job.

Not even mentioning the regulators.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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