VAGABIT 2 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Decentralized Halving: Hints of Future Price Action

1/ Don't see many people discussing the BTC halving next year yet so decided to do some analysis.

There are a few key data points we can look at over previous price action surrounding halving's which give us a hint of future price action.


2/ We can see clearly that percentage growth is decreasing each bullish cycle. Around 5 times less each bull market from bottom to top.

Obviously previous data doesn't narrate the future but it is logical that we will see less growth unless we see more institutional investment.

3/ We can see previous bear cycles averaging an 85% drop.

This would suggest that BTC could still drop to around 10k.

However, we have not seen bullish PA like we are seeing now before the final drop before.

Increasing the likelihood we have bottomed already.

4/ Further increasing the likelihood we have bottomed. We can see previous ATL's forming in the middle of the 3rd quarter of each cycle period.

This correlates with the the local low we saw last November.

5/ Previous cycles also show a retest of extreme demand in the fourth quarter mitigating imbalance. This also lines up with the imbalance currently being printed out with this explosive price action.

To conclude, current data compared to previous data significantly increases the likelihood this cycle has bottomed.

I will repeat that previous data cannot always predict the future but it certainly increases the likelihood of certain outcomes and this cannot be ignored.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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