Ski trip done. BTC still ripping. Broke mid-range. I have a narrative playing in my head which could be way off but here are thoughts:
- We'll get a flush. Needs to be scary enough for "rally over" or "more down". Maybe another 3-5% up then 15-18% down. (notes on chart)
- Range high will break. Ppl will call for that 32k high. we won't make it (left chart).
- Everyone likes to say 'Trap' and 'Deviation'. But how can we make actionable levels for these? I like using fib for overextension. @tradersykeee might be the king at this.
- For me, traps can be measured from swing high - low, or range high - low. Sometimes you have to be organic. (There's not a big difference between these levels here)
- This zone is a big area of interest for tp's. Can wait and see if deviation confirms, or RH retest.
- There r 3 kinds of shorts here in my mind. Horny, underwater, & shorts from higher who expected lower.
- Some sweating. Break range high & sweat turns to panic. Fear of breaking that 32k & "bottom being in".
- Stops triggered & shorts exit = liquidity for longs tp.
What do I want to see for this to be the case?
"muh climactic impulse".
More importantly, I want to see impulse and some htf divs into these fib trap zones.
Finally, falling back in range would help confirm.
Here's a dumb chart for how this could look. Imagine a "sell in May" and walk away?
It will probably look nothing like this, but it's the levels that matter to me for now. if we continue to go up, I'll keep looking to TP for now (second chart).
If we turn around before any of these, just accumulate for later.
TP strategy for spot is simple for now. Frontrun resistance and target traps.
Why do I think the low is not necessarily in? (or we at least revisit)
Yearly has barely a bottom wick. That's all.
Why do I think the bottom could be in? Because FTX died plus this is a dumb-looking unexpected bottom. But I don't think it means bull back.
This monthly candle will make a monthly demand zone. so if we do come back for it, or sweep it (trap), then I think it's a no-brainer.
I think we need to go up a lot more at this point for that to happen.
Until we flip this RH and get a proper retest or fail, these are the main HTF levels in my mind.
This plan is subject to change.
Again, playing with a narrative and journaling.
Plan for now:
- Keep BTC spot limit sells - Look for alts to long (spot mainly) on the next big flush (eventually) - Play lows impulse/rally until something changesThis post is based on this twitter thread.