Jolly Green Investor 🍀
Jolly Green Investor 🍀 2 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bear Market Rally? Here’s What It Means (And Doesn’t Really Work)

Is BTC starting a new bull market? 📈

Or is this just another bear market rally? 📉

Let's find out 🧵👇

If you follow me here, you will see I have been warning that the consensus was waiting to fil their bags at 18-19k BTC, while the price continued to rip higher.

When everyone is waiting for a price, it usually doesn't happen, or can take a lot longer than most think.

Bear market rallies can go for much longer and cause more pain than most expect.

It is important to understand why the market is currently rallying.

CPI Data from Dec. showed that inflation is going down, so the market is currently frontrunning Fed slowing rate hikes/ pausing.

The next FOMC is Jan 31/Feb 1 and will likely decide if this rally continues or dies. Very important date and I will be trimming my positions going into it.

You can see what everyone expects them to say by how Bitcoin is currently acting.

However, noone really knows...

As for the BTC charts, you can see the levels I am looking at on this chart.

Seems like 25k is a magnet.

Could coincide with the FOMC in 10 days or so.

If they are dovish (talk about a pause or pivot) we could see the rally continue higher to 27k or even 30k+...

On the other hand, if they come out hawkish (say they will continue with rate hikes until inflation is much lower) then I would expect a reversal and the rally may be done.

It is important not to try and predict the future, but create plans that you can capitalize on either way.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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