BTC Sunday update:
This pump has been fueled by liquidations.
Traders kept shorting because we were in a range for a long time. These short positions kept the market pumping in order to liquidate them.
23.4K is an area with many liquidations & we have liquidity up to 25.5k
This is a very strong bounce in a downtrend (so far).
You know I don't use indicators but there is something I find interesting: 20 and 55 EMAs crossovers in HTF.
This is basically a Bull/bear market indicator in weekly TF.
No bull market calls until we get the crossover again
This is now in 1D time frame which works like a charm to identify trend changes:
We can't dismiss this scenario. It already happened in 2022, you might remember the painful 48k drop
We saw a 20-55 EMA bullish crossover but it failed to test it as support so downtrend continued
We'll know if this move is real once we test the EMAs as support.
This is esentially what you want to see to discard the 2022 PA I just showed you.
If BTC comes back to the EMAs, but falls below them, then it'll be the same scenario as in 2022 with 48k...
But is there any liquidity below us to even consider this scenario as possible?
Yes. Pretty much most of the liquidity is below us at the moment. Check this 3 month tf liquidations heatmap.
Have no bias. Bulls are dismissing this scenario and bears wouldn't buy support either.
Back to LTF we can see some fuckery in the orderbook:
We can identify spoofing in the orderbook. See how they're moving all the buy orders from 22k to 21.6k.
To the upside, we can see 23.4k which confluences with the 7-days liquidation heatmap.
So this is the scenario I like for this week:
23.4k could get hit as it's an interesting liquidity zone. If it keeps rising from there, then 25.5k will be the next potential rejection zone
If they keep those sub 22k orders in the orderbook, then we will see a pullback there.
This post is based on this twitter thread.