Bitcoin: 2019 vs 2022, Potential Targets?
In 2019, the bear market rally ran all the way to the .618 retracement level at around 14k.
If history repeats itself, a rally of that scale would mean a BTC rally to 48k 👀
Is this realistic? Let's have a look at a few scenarios 👇🏻
Scenario 1: The same percentage rally.
In the Echo Bubble of 2019, Bitcoin rallied 343% from the lows.
If we repeat this percentage, we are mere dollars shy of new all-time highs.
Hardly an echo bubble anymore, and it's likely we keep pushing higher if this materialises.
Scenario 2: The same Fibonacci Retracement.
2019's Echo bubble ended when BTC ran into the .618 retracement.
This time around the .618 retracement lies around 48k, lining up with some key levels.
Definitely an area to watch, but still seems like a long shot.
Scenario 3: The same dollar increase.
2019's Echo Bubble pushed for approximately 8500 USD after breaking the 200d EMA.
If this plays out similarly, we would stall right around the 2021 floor, or 30k.
A huge level to break.
All in all, these 3 main scenarios have some merit, one more than the other.
I am personally not very fixated on any of these scenarios, although I am very interested to see what happens at 30k, in line with my previous tweets.
⚠️ Another key event I am watching is a chance in FED policy.
It feels like the markets are rallying on an expected rate hike pause, which means that IF that happens, it will likely be a sell-the-news event.
This could also mark a top for BTC's current rally.
Either way, I keep accumulating coins, and remain on the lookout for a flip of 30k.
Once we flip that level, I think it's time to play the next bull cycle.
Until then, it's preparation season.
What is your thesis for the coming months? Scenario 1, 2 or 3, or something else?This post is based on this twitter thread.