I was waiting 14k for BTC until last week.
Friday I got my invalidation of bearish continuation.
After looking at the charts all the week-end, I have now switched my bias, I'm bullish and I expect BTC to reach 45k-50k by end of April
A Thread 🧵
First of all, what was my invalidation ?
BTC broke its trading-range at 21,500, printing a higher high, and did a low-time-frame accumulation at those levels to push price higher.
This was my technical invalidation for new lows.
Now, before exposing why I switched bullish, here's the invalidation of my bullish scenario :
A weekly close below 18,400 would invalidate this scenario, and would mean that all this was a bull-trap and that we're going lower, therefore 14k scenario would be back on the table.
Now, why do I think bottom is in for BTC ?
Everybody including me was waiting for lower, and most of people didn't entered the market since FTX event.
This is a perfect environment for smart money to accumulate, and the recent pump just confirmed me that accumulation happened.
Let's take a look at the volume of the supposed bottom :
On the weekly chart of BTC index, BTC Coinbase, and BTC1! CME, we can clearly see that big and increasing volume has been executed on the bottom
With low volatility it shows that sell orders were absorbed➡️Accumulation
Look at the low volatility we had in the last weeks :
First low volatility signal was a trap, second signal for now was the good one
Just like previous bear market
Momentum on MACD is strong too, one weekly bull divergence and others potential bull div about to get confirmed
Now look at the order-flow :
If this move was a "bull trap", purpose of this move would be liquidating short
But there was no significant move of open-interest so imo this move is not "fake"
You can also see that OI is non-existent on bottom, everybody stayed out of the market
Other things that shows me everybody missed the bottom and stayed out of the market is some Google-trend datas
"Buy crypto" term hits an all-time-low with zero interest
"Crypto dead" term hitted an all-time-high two weeks after FTX event
In addition to that, there was a lot of suspicious claims/FUD
- JPM tells to take profit, we're in bear market rally - ECB releasing their trash paper on BTC - DOJ's joke annoucement - Swift FUD - Jamie Dimon trashtalk BTC
Why I'm waiting for 45k-50k now?
BTC and altcoins charts looks completely different than one month ago, I think market is ready for a big retracement.
We already had a nice pump. However, it's nothing but a small retracement for now, we should be at the beginning of it.
Total Crypto Cap :
Total1 shows a lower low because of BTC with FTX event but we have a nice weekly bottom
Total2 shows that rest of market resisted better (ETH and some alts didn't make new lows)
Total3 suffered the most, (altcoins bleed more during capitulation phase)
Like I said in my previous thread, I'm still waiting for a big crash in MAY 2023, so I expect BTC to reach my target before MAY.
In my scenario, the 18,400 zone should be retested in the weeks/months after MAY crash, marking the bottom before bull market starts
Here's my estimated forecast for the next weeks
I don't expect a pullback for now, as the open-interest is low/neutral, will update my thoughs if there's changes.
I am now bullish until invalidation and I'm waiting for 45k-50k.
I'll stay careful but I'll try to long every retracement from now on.
Stay safe frends We made it so far, our patience is finaly gonna pay off 🥷This post is based on this twitter thread.