Prism Watcher
Prism Watcher 2 minutes reading from Terra

What Would Happen To The Market Every Day?

1/6 LUNA vesting begins today!

350M LUNA has a 30% genesis unlock, and 70% 6 month cliff and 2 year linear vest. The cliff is today.

So (350M * 0.7) / 730 =

335,616 LUNA vesting per day.

But how much could ACTUALLY hit the market every day? Let's take a look ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡

2/6 First, we need to consider the other airdrop category: pre-attack LUNC.

Depending on how much LUNC was in addresses with <10K LUNC, that adds more to the daily LUNA vest.

Assuming 15% of LUNC was in those addresses, that means another 50,342 LUNA vesting per day.

3/6 So there's an estimated total of 386,000 LUNA vesting per day.

Okay, so how much will hit the market?

Hard to say.

4/6 The bulk of the vesting goes to whoever was crazy enough to hold LUNC and USTC for the post-attack snapshot. I have a hunch that certain friends of Terra held much of the of LUNC and USTC at that time.

5/6 And the rest of the vesting goes to pure retail. I think most of the retail participants from earlier in the year have completely checked out from crypto; most probably aren't even fully aware that they're receiving vested LUNA.

6/6 So a very good estimate of the vest is 386,000 LUNA per day, but there's reason to believe that most will not be sold.

At any rate, VCs and LUNC whales from before the crash don't get any LUNA yet. Their vest doesn't begin until May of 2023.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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